Germany vs Spain Match preview

EURO 2008 Knockout Stage: Germany vs Spain

However the finals in Vienna ends, one thing is certain: all of the best teams have made it to the finish, that is to say had a chance to fight for the trophy. Before the championship started, we didn’t think of Spain as of top favourites but it seems that this Red Fury generation has the quality to erase the label of losers. Germany, on the other hand, are no surprise; there were some doubts after their loss against Croatia in the group but the duel against Portugal showed what Elf can do. They weren’t impressive against Turkey either but they will fight for their fourth crown in their seventh finals. So far, they had partial success but Low and his players are aware that this is a chance of a generation. Some former Panzer squads had even more quality... This squad with only few stars could stand side by side some better teams. Spain are euphoric, though pragmatic Aragones warns that the qualification for the finals is a good result, but a trophy makes you a winner. Last time this country played in EURO finals was in France 1984 when they comparatively easily lost to the hosts. But as we have said on several occasions, for the first time in recent history, Spanish players have leading roles in their clubs, are capable of taking responsibility. It is an experienced squad and certainly Villa’s absence is a handicap but Aragones will probably modify his tactics, try 4-5-1 formation where David Silva will play closer to the net and Fabregas will get the chance from the first minute.

Spain can play for the score

The match against Italy showed that Spain have a studious guidance from the bench but also enough quality to answer to any challenge. It was clear from the very beginning that the world champions are playing for the draw but it didn’t disturb Spain in controlling the game and stop them from celebrating the penalty in the end. Although some consider it luck, Aragones’ side were better during the whole 120 minutes so, in a way, justice was done with that penalty. But Red Fury didn't get carried away; for example, in the game against Russia they didn't score in the first half but they showed admirable patience in waiting the rivals’ mistake. When they opened the score, afterwards it was all a matter of routine. Statistically speaking, Spain sore most goals in the last 20 minutes; they are in excellent physical shape so Germany won't have advantage in that aspect, where usually hardly anyone can match them. If the fight remains mostly in the midfield than Spain have a slight advantage here. They are very good in the midfield, led by veteran Senna whose lack of experience in big games is not all obvious. This Brazilian-born easily manages the play of his team and interestingly, Spain always have a convincing ball possession. They will probably try to stop German attacking wingers and their strong jump, which eliminated Portugal.

Never underestimate Germany

History teaches us that Germany can in no match be an outsider. When the rivals underestimate them, it usually turns into a bitter disappointment. Portugal are the best example. Aside from that match and the opening one against Poland, Germany didn’t give their best. They won Turkey in an untypical way; they allowed the rivals to get back in the match but in the end Lahm solved the game. Back line had a nightmare evening, so low will have to work on some details before the finals. Spain has no hidden weapons; Germany are aware that their midfield will have to run a lot and with aggressive play try to disable the passes to Fernando Torres as well as Iniesta and Silva, but it is easier said than done. No team managed to do that, not even Italy who haven’t conceded but allowed Spain to create several good chances. Set-pieces are Germany's advantage, couple of swift wingers who will try to use Ramos going out to the opposite half of the pitch as well as Capdevila, the weakest link in Spanish squad. These two sides haven’t met in a long time but Germany are doing well in the clashes with teams like this and most often their eagerness and winning mentality prevail. But this is a completely new generation of Spanish players who can not be labeled as losers.

Tradition

TOTAL OF 19 GAMES – 8 Germany wins, 6 draws, 5 Spain wins

TOTAL OF 7 GAMES – 4 Germany wins, 2 draws, 1 Spain win

EURO 1984 – Spain vs. Germany 1:0

EURO 1988 – Germany vs. Spain 2:0


Betting Verdict

We believe that the bookies are making a mistake by underestimating Germany. This is a classic game where anything can happen and the chances for winning the trophy are 50-50. When we take a look at the odds we can't see why so much advantage is on Red Fury's side that did have stronger rivals than Germany, but that doesn't have to mean anything. The uncertain thing is how David Villa’s absence, that is to say, the change of the formation will affect the play; Spain will probably have the domination in ball possession but without Valencia attacker some problems could occur like focus on Torres as well as Germany aggressive play and pressure upon physically inferior players like Silva and Iniesta. Low is an excellent tactician and he will certainly be able to get the best of his squad. We should mention that even besides slow defense, Germany can neutralise the weaknesses of their back line but paradoxally, it will be easier for them against Spain than against Turkey since the rivals will have less space. Spain will have to attack since leaving the space for German fantastic counterattacks is a suicide. This looks like a draw after 90 minutes since both sides will be careful; we suggest betting on double chance (+1 European handicap) on Germany. Expekt offer 1.60 and those are excellent odds since we don’t see Spain as favourites here. We also don’t believe that there will be many goals scored; there will be a tough fight in the midfield without many chances. Ladbrokes offer 1.84 on under 2.25.

Team news : Villa is out for Spain...Low has doubts about Ballack fitness but best German player will probably start this game.
Here are line ups :

Germany (4 - 2 - 3 - 1)

Lehmann
Friedrich, Metzelder, Mertesacker, Lahm
Frings, Hitzlsperger
Schweinsteiger, Ballack, Podolski
Klose

Spain (4 - 1 - 4 - 1)

Casillas
Ramos, Marchena, Puyol, Capdevila
Senna
Iniesta, Xavi, Fabregas, Silva
Torres

Our tip: Bet 7 on Germany not to lose
Odds 1.6 at
Bookmaker: Expekt